“My model is used to compute the probability of anything from earthquakes to bankruptcies”

Recognized with the IX Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Basic Sciences, mathematician David Cox explains in this interview how his probabilistic models make it possible to estimate the likelihood of phenomena as diverse as earthquakes or economic collapses. Cox outlines the evolution of statistical theory toward high-risk applications, reflects on the role of data in managing uncertainty, and emphasizes the importance of careful interpretation in critical contexts.

The BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in the Basic Sciences category goes, in this ninth edition, to mathematicians David Cox and Bradley Efron, for their pioneering and hugely influential contributions to the theory and practice of statistical science through the invention of powerful techniques in pervasive use, including the Cox regression and Efron’s bootstrap method.