“Instead of providing a point estimate of some quantity, I give a bound, an interval, whose width expresses how much uncertainty there is”

After receiving the 18th BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Economics, Finance and Management, economist Charles Manski reflects in this interview on his contributions to econometrics and decision theory under conditions of uncertainty. Manski explains how his work has challenged the common practice of drawing overly precise conclusions from limited data, advocating instead for explicitly acknowledging the margins of ambiguity in empirical analysis. Throughout the conversation, he discusses the concept of “credible inference” and its implications for public policy design, emphasizing the responsibility of economists to communicate transparently both the scope and the limitations of their findings in collective decision-making.

Charles F. Manski was awarded for his outstanding contributions to the development of modern econometric methods and their application to the analysis of public policy.